Crypto News Today: Iran War Bets Put Prediction Markets at Crypto’s Macro Core
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Prediction markets tied to the Iran conflict are becoming a key tool for crypto trading desks, providing real-time risk signals. According to Sygnum Bank's Chief Investment Officer, these markets are shifting quickly as US escalation odds change, impacting Bitcoin prices.
Sygnum Bank's Chief Investment Officer, Fabian Dori, says platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi help traders track geopolitical risk in real-time. These markets price named outcomes with real capital, giving crypto desks a unique signal during periods driven by regulation and geopolitics. Professional desks now monitor these signals alongside funding rates and options surfaces. Prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during geopolitical stress, but rather an event monitor. Institutional adoption is widening, with ARK Invest integrating Kalshi's prediction market data into its investment process. The sector has seen sharp growth, with prediction market transactions reaching $191 million in March, up 2,838% from a year earlier.
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