The Looming College-Enrollment Death Spiral
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The number of high school graduates in the US is expected to decline through 2041, posing a crisis for colleges dependent on filling seats. This decline may lead to college closures, particularly affecting local and regional institutions that serve middle- and lower-income students.
The US has about 4,000 colleges, with around 60 closing annually. This number may double due to declining enrollment. The number of teenagers graduating from high school peaked last year and will decline steadily through 2041. American higher education has two markets: one for high-achieving students and another for local and regional students. The latter will be most affected by college closures. Roughly half of students attend college within 50 miles of home, but national universities are becoming more competitive. Undergraduate enrollment has been falling since 2011, and the demographic cliff will exacerbate this trend. Regional colleges may struggle to stay afloat as they lose local students to national universities.
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